建信期货铁矿石日评-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On August 12, the iron ore futures market showed an upward trend. The price of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals, and it is expected that the short - term iron ore price will show a high - level consolidation trend. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan needs to be observed to see if it will have a negative impact on the fundamentals [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - On August 12, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, opening higher and then rising, closing at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 2.36%. Other steel futures also showed different degrees of increase, such as RB2510 up 0.96%, HC2510 up 1.40%, and SS2510 up 0.38% [5][7]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On August 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - News: Tangshan issued a notice on August 9, requiring independent rolling steel enterprises to stop production at any time from August 16 to 25 based on meteorological conditions and to stop production from August 25 to September 3, which is expected to affect the daily output of 35 billet - rolling section steel enterprises by about 90,000 tons. A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to limit production by 30% from August 16 - 25, 50% from August 26 - September 3, and resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke production of about 41,000 tons [10][11]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, the weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly last week, and the total shipping volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a medium - low level. On the demand side, the demand for downstream steel products is still seasonally declining, inventory is gradually accumulating, and pig iron production has declined for three consecutive weeks but remains at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, and with sufficient profits, steel mills maintain strong production. In the short term, the demand for iron ore remains strong, supporting the ore price. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan needs to be observed [11]. 3.2 Industry News - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to limit production by 30% from August 16 - 25, 50% from August 26 - September 3, and resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke production of about 41,000 tons. The current operating rate of this coking enterprise is 90% [10][11][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the iron and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume of main ports, the number of days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and port clearance volume, the cost of pig iron without tax for sample steel mills, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [18][25][29].