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农产品早报-20250813
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-13 03:01

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short term, with continuous reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn, the market is in a state of slight decline but with limited downside space. In the long - term, potential import increases and new - season supply increments may impact prices [3]. - For starch, it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term and remains bearish in the long term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3]. - For sugar, the international market has potential for a rebound, while the domestic market faces pressure from upcoming large - scale imports [6]. - For cotton, it has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks, with focus on demand changes [7]. - For eggs, prices may rise again with upcoming festival demands, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. - For apples, the new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season [10]. - For pigs, the short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10]. Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, corn prices in some regions showed minor changes, with a 6 - yuan decrease in the price in潍坊. Starch prices remained stable in some regions, and the base difference decreased by 3 [2]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn led to a slight weakening of corn prices, but the downside is limited. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, potential import increases and lower new - season costs may impact prices [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, sugar prices in some regions decreased, and the base difference decreased by 35. The import profit from Thailand decreased by 125, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 387 [6]. - Market Analysis: The international sugar market may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production. The domestic market faces pressure from upcoming imports with a price range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 85. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 6, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 52 [7]. - Market Analysis: Cotton has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the base difference decreased by 2 [7]. - Market Analysis: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance in July, then回调. With upcoming festival demands, prices may rise again, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan [9]. - Market Analysis: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season with low inventory and slow de - stocking [10]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, pig prices in some regions showed minor changes, and the base difference decreased by 90 [10]. - Market Analysis: The short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10].