宏观经济深度研究：数字的修正与预期的转折

Employment Data Revision - Since 2025, U.S. non-farm employment data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than initially reported[2] - Historical patterns show that significant downward revisions in non-farm data often precede economic slowdowns, as seen during the 2001 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis[3] - The downward trend in non-farm data has been consistent over the past three years, with revisions of 546,000, 577,000, and 461,000 jobs respectively[3] Labor Market Indicators - Job vacancies have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a decline of nearly 40%[10] - The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% in late 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, reflecting a gradual but persistent upward trend[10] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased from around 200,000 in early 2023 to 250,000 by June 2025, indicating a rise in layoffs[10] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 80% within a few days[13] - The likelihood of cumulative rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year has increased from less than 8% to 53.1%[13] - The focus of market speculation has transitioned from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" as labor market data continues to weaken[13]