从牧场到市场:乳制品收集中心如何提高蒙古农民的收入
2025-08-13 06:25
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asian Development Bank's gender - inclusive dairy value chain investment project in Mongolia from 2019 - 2023 had a positive impact on milk suppliers. The average monthly household income of the treatment group increased by 57% from the baseline to the end - stage (in 2019 prices), compared to a 39% increase in the comparison group. The project also led to an increase in milk production and potentially alleviated over - grazing and pasture degradation [25][105]. - The Mongolian dairy industry faces challenges such as over - supply in summer, under - utilization of resources, and milk shortages in other seasons. The expansion of the Milko - type milk collection system may be the solution to the under - utilization problem [27][36]. - The government's milk subsidy plan has increased winter milk supply but has not addressed the issue of resource under - utilization in the peak season. Further incentives for the expansion of milk collection and dairy production led by mature processors are needed [27][38]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Introduction - Mongolia's traditional livestock population has been increasing steadily since the 1990s, with an average annual growth of 4.5% since 2010, reaching 64.7 million in 2023. Cows contribute about 60% of the total milk production. In 2023, the livestock sector produced 820 million liters of raw milk, but only 15% was processed by dairy processors [28]. - The Mongolian dairy industry has seasonal imbalances, with milk surplus in June - September and shortages in other months. In 2023, 27% of herder families did not milk their cows, and the country imported $24.7 million worth of concentrated milk, milk powder, and cream [30][32][33]. - Mongolia has 161 dairy processing enterprises, with the top five accounting for about 70% of the processing capacity. Different processors use various milk procurement models [35]. - The government's milk subsidy plan has increased winter milk supply but has not solved the problem of resource under - utilization in the peak season [37][38]. Project - The Asian Development Bank funded a gender - inclusive dairy value chain investment project in Mongolia from 2019 - 2023, supporting Milko to expand milk collection from small herders. The project included building seven new milk collection points and installing two new low - temperature dryers, with a $7.5 million loan from ADB and a $2.1 million investment from Milko [40]. - By 2024, Milko operated 10 collection points, and the total milk collection capacity increased from 20 tons in 2019 to 50 tons [41]. - Each collection point is managed by local agents, and Milko pays them per liter of milk, with an average price of 1,200 Mongolian tugriks per liter as of 2024 [46]. Impact Assessment Design and Methodology - The impact assessment aimed to measure the project's impact on milk suppliers. The double - difference method (DiD) was chosen as the most appropriate method, and the following indicators were used to measure productivity and profitability: household total income, milk supply volume, and milk price [47][53][60]. - The DiD method eliminates the influence of factors unrelated to the project and the differences between the treatment and control groups at the baseline. The theoretical equation was transformed into a regression equation for statistical estimation [55][56]. - The study considered potential selection biases but found them to be low. The DWH test confirmed that the participation variable was exogenous [61][65][67]. Baseline and End - point Surveys - The baseline survey was conducted from April - May 2021, collecting information on herder families' activities in 2019 and 2020. The end - point survey was conducted from August - October 2024, collecting data on 2023 and 2024 [68]. - The treatment group consisted of 556 households supplying milk to six new collection points, and the comparison group initially had 1,198 households, which was later reduced to 700 based on the similarity of the number of cows [74]. - By the end of the study, the experimental group had 406 households, and the control group had 689 households [81]. - From 2019 - 2023, Mongolia's economy grew at an average rate of 3%, and consumer prices rose by an average of 8%. The average monthly household income increased nominally by 88% and actually by about 38% from Q3 2019 to Q3 2024 [85]. Research Results - Social - demographic characteristics of respondents: The average household size in the treatment group decreased from 3.9 to 3.7, and in the comparison group from 4.6 to 4.3. The proportion of households with at least one member voluntarily paying social insurance premiums increased in both groups [91][95][99]. - Impact measurement: - Household monthly income: The average monthly household income of the treatment group increased by 57% (in 2019 prices), driven by milk and dairy products and social welfare and pensions. The comparison group's income increased by 39%, mainly due to wages, salaries, and pensions [104][105]. - Sales of milk and dairy products: The average annual milk production of the treatment group increased from 5,300 liters in 2019 to 9,400 liters in 2024. The increase in income from milk sales was due to both an increase in quantity (70%) and price (30%) [112][113]. - Number of livestock and cows: In 2019, the treatment group had 129,292 livestock, and the comparison group had 360,647. By 2024, the treatment group had 80,771, and the comparison group had 308,561. The number of cows in both groups was similar at the end [116][122].