瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the TC cost of copper concentrate has improved but remains in the negative range, and the port inventory in China has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, due to the increase in newly put - into - production capacity and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid to make up for smelting losses, smelters are currently actively producing. However, considering the supply of copper concentrate, the production growth rate may gradually slow down. In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season is expected to continue, and the export demand will be suppressed due to the high taxes on copper products in the US. So the downstream consumption demand may slow down, and the total inventory remains at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where the supply growth rate gradually slows down and the demand is slightly weak due to seasonal changes and trade tariffs. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0050, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,845.50 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. The spread between the main contracts of different months is 0 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 158,877 lots, up 2,833 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai copper is 4,902 lots, up 5,608 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 700 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,933 tons, up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,600 tons, down 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 22,800 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,475 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,400 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 95 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 87.14 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC cost of domestic copper smelters is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, up 4.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,720 yuan/metal ton, up 320 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,420 yuan/metal ton, up 320 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,490 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 29.11 billion yuan, up 8.7114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 466.5756 billion yuan, up 104.2372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.30%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.72%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.12%, down 0.0023%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, up 0.0050 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China and the US issued the "Joint Statement of the China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue to adjust the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China continued to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs on the US and relevant non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans". From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans (excluding credit cards) can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies. The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and up 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data was released, the market expected the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting to exceed 90%. The US Treasury Secretary suggested that the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there may be pressure on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear. Kansas Fed President Schmid said tariffs have limited impact on inflation [2]