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瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250813
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 08:53

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The dollar index is in a weak and volatile pattern, which is positive for gold prices. However, if the US - Russia negotiation makes substantial progress, it may put downward pressure on gold prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Medium - term: Factors such as the inflation rebound risk due to tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilient demand for central bank gold purchases still provide strong support. The bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the central price of gold. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. The target range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 777.72 yuan/gram, up 1.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9300 yuan/kilogram, up 113 yuan. The positions of the main contracts and the net positions of the top 20 have different changes, and the gold warehouse receipts remain unchanged while the silver warehouse receipts decrease by 16,111 kilograms [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 773.7 yuan/gram, down 0.3 yuan; the silver spot price is 9200 yuan/kilogram, up 66 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.02 yuan/gram, down 1.98 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 100 yuan/kilogram, down 47 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: Gold ETF holdings remain unchanged, and silver ETF holdings increase by 40.96 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC have different changes. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold both increase by about 54.8 tons. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global annual demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - Option Market: The historical and implied volatilities of gold options have different changes, with the 20 - day historical volatility of gold up 0.1% and the 40 - day historical volatility down 0.18% [2]. 3.2 Industry News - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit still expanded. The tariff revenue in July soared to $28 billion, a year - on - year increase of 273%, and the budget deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% increase year - on - year [2]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell. US Treasury Secretary called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Affected by the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index weakened, the Shanghai gold price recovered, and the silver price continued to rebound strongly. The year - on - year growth rate of US CPI in July was lower than expected [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.4% [2].