瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has significantly rebounded for three consecutive trading days, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time since March. Most industry sectors rose, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the banking sector leading the decline. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed that the CPI turned from a decline to an increase in July, and the core CPI increase has expanded for three consecutive months. The month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, with the PPI-CPI scissors gap narrowing slightly. The stabilization of domestic demand and the effectiveness of industrial policies have driven the month-on-month growth of PPI and CPI. In terms of sentiment, S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and the outlook at "stable". At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices have further increased based on the semi-annual reports of listed companies disclosed so far. In terms of funds, northbound capital transactions have been continuously active, and QFII has further increased its positions in A-share listed companies. Overall, the stabilization of prices has a repairing effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. Currently, the market focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all showing positive growth, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one must be vigilant against the drag on the index performance caused by the decline in the profits of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. At the same time, with the high valuation of US stocks, A-shares with relatively reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. Finally, S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating has also strengthened market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4170.8, up 42.2; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4181.2, up 40.0. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2818.8, up 9.8; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2818.0, up 9.2. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6451.8, up 113.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6505.8, up 100.6. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 7001.8, up 122.0; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 7064.2, up 113.4. Various spreads and differences between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions are -28,998.00, up 1645.0; IH top 20 net positions are -17,875.00, up 415.0; IC top 20 net positions are -16,519.00, up 255.0; IM top 20 net positions are -55,549.00, up 3154.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4176.58, up 32.8; SSE 50 is 2812.98, up 6.0; CSI 500 is 6508.10, up 89.9; CSI 1000 is 7064.33, up 100.7. A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 21,752.11, up 2700.00; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,345.33, up 83.35. Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2365.34, up 95.34 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) changed from -376.99 to -70.99. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 50.39, up 11.94. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged. IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 11.60, up 6.20; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, up 0.18. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 31.40, down 32.40; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, down 0.34 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 6.10, up 1.00; technical aspect score is 5.00, up 1.20; capital aspect score is 7.20, up 0.80 [2] 4. Key Data to be Focused on - China's July financial data (to be determined); US July PPI and core PPI on August 14 at 20:30; China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data on August 15 at 10:00 [3]