碳酸锂产业日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply slightly increases and demand gradually recovers. Lithium prices fluctuate greatly, and the industry outlook is gradually improving. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 85,100 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 159,540 lots, down 44,780 lots; the position of the main contract is 392,675 lots, up 35,677 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 6,100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,829 lots/ton, up 1,440 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,100 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 819 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,350 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,553 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 31,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.28 million yuan/ton, up 0.13 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 123,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%; the current monthly output of new energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the current monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the current monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.74%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.70%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 142,443 lots, down 16,548 lots; the total put position is 91,141 lots, up 19,793 lots; the total put - call ratio of positions is 63.98%, up 19.1087%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.48%, down 0.0043% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch: Resist "involution - style" vicious competition, jointly create a fair, just, stable and orderly market environment. Strengthen upstream - downstream collaboration to maintain industrial security. Enhance information transparency and reduce communication barriers. Stabilize market supply through signing long - term cooperation agreements [2]. - Ganfeng Lithium: Integrate the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR, and plan to develop and build a production line with an annual output of 150,000 tons of LCE lithium products [2]. - Eight leading dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises including Xingyuan Materials, Zhongxing New Materials, Huiqiang New Materials, Cangzhou Mingzhu, Enjie Co., Ltd., Bosheng New Materials, Tianhong New Materials, and Kanghui New Materials have reached multiple consensuses on anti - involution in the industry: price self - discipline; scientific capacity release; suspension of capacity expansion; strengthening industrial chain cooperation; and hoping for social supervision [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, closing down 0.61%. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the fluctuation of spot prices led to the fluctuation of lithium ore prices. Mines held firm on prices while smelters only replenished stocks for rigid demand, and the overall trading situation was cautious. In terms of supply, due to the policy change in domestic mining areas, when the market rose, smelters participated in hedging to ensure profits. In this context, smelters still had a high willingness to produce, and domestic supply may continue to increase. In terms of demand, the production plans of downstream battery material factories have been improved. As the market demand changes from the off - season to the peak season, downstream enterprises have advanced inventory preparations and other operations, and the inquiry activities have increased. However, since downstream enterprises are more sensitive to the current lithium price, high - price lithium will also suppress the purchasing sentiment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market remains cautious and wait - and - see [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of positions is 63.98%, up 19.1087% month - on - month. The call position in the options market dominates, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish. The implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].