瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The raw materials are in a tight situation, refined nickel production has increased slightly, demand from stainless steel mills has improved, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel price increases have led to weakened procurement demand, and domestic inventories have remained stable while overseas LME inventories have increased [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,360 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 70,930 lots, down 2,959 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 25,561 lots, down 212 lots; LME nickel inventory is 211,098 tons, down 648 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,194 tons, up 444 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,302 tons, down 648 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,578 tons, down 115 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 123,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 205.99 US dollars/ton, down 2.42 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,033.34 million tons, up 38.98 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 0.1932 billion tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 592,900 tons, down 15,100 tons [2]. Industry News - The three departments have introduced a consumer subsidy policy with a 50,000 - yuan consumption limit for single - pen consumption over 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes various key consumption areas. The China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff starting from August 12, 2025. In July, the US CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations, and 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%. The core inflation reached the highest level since February, mainly driven by service price increases. The market believes the July CPI data is mild, and traders have greatly increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [2].