国债期货日报-20250813

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturity declined by about 0.50 - 1.50bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y declined by about 1bp to 1.72% and 1.96% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.10% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to around 1.46% and fluctuated. Domestically, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand has emerged. In July, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to rise, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. In July, the PMIs of both manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors declined comprehensively, the supply and demand decreased marginally, and the composite PMI declined slightly but remained above the boom - bust line, indicating that overall production and business activities remained stable. In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to rise in July, showing the resilience of foreign trade. Overseas, the suspension period of China - US tariffs was extended by 90 days. The year - on - year increase of US CPI in July was flat and lower than expected. Previous non - farm data showed weakness in the labor market, and the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to be higher than 90%. Recently, the equity market has been strong, and the stock index is approaching the high point since October last year, triggering concentrated selling of bonds by trading accounts, with significant selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds. Currently, the bond market is still tied to equity fluctuations. Against the backdrop of unchanged risk - preference dominance, the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.435 (+0.02%), 105.745 (+0.05%), 102.368 (+0.03%), and 118.270 (+0.1%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 77715 (+6311), 47424 (-1345), 39500 (+1660), and 125564 (+4221) respectively [2]. - Futures Spreads: Most of the spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 showed an upward trend, while T09 - TL09 spread decreased by 0.11 [2]. - Futures Positions: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The net short positions of T and TL among the top 20 decreased, while the net short position of TF increased and that of TS decreased slightly [2]. 2. Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc. showed an upward trend, except for 210014.IB which decreased slightly [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yields of 3 - year active treasury bonds decreased [2]. 3. Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The short - term interest rates of silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and Shibor overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day all showed an upward trend, while the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 1185 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1385 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2]. 5. Industry News - The three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Loans to Service - Industry Business Entities" [2]. 6. Key Concerns - On August 14 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 will be released; on August 15 at 20:30, the monthly rate of US retail sales in July will be released [3].