油脂油料产业日报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm Oil: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise in the short - term, potentially approaching 4500 ringgit, with a chance of briefly breaking through and reaching 4580 - 4600 ringgit. However, due to potential production growth and export slowdown in the second half of the month, there is a risk of a pull - back. The overall view is near - term strength and long - term weakness. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures have the potential to continue rising after breaking through 9500 yuan, possibly reaching 10,000 yuan. It is crucial to monitor whether they can effectively stay above 9500 yuan [3]. - Soybean Oil: China's decision to impose a 75.8% anti - dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed from August 15 will increase the demand for other oilseeds and vegetable oils. The USDA monthly report has lowered the forecast for US soybean production and ending stocks, which will boost the prices of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil in the short term, and also support the price of Dalian soybean oil. The continuation of Sino - US tariffs until early November makes the fourth - quarter soybean import volume uncertain. The main January contract may face resistance at 8700 yuan, and if it fails to break through, a technical correction may occur [4]. - Oilseeds (Bean and Rapeseed Meal): The US Department of Agriculture's report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, reducing the new - season production forecast and benefiting South American soybean exports. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has led to a limit - up in rapeseed meal futures, also boosting the price of soybean meal futures. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the main contract of Dalian soybean meal can reach the resistance range of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Spreads - Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads of Oils: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for various oil contracts, such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 318 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 66 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 920 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 122 yuan [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have increased, with the 01 contract at 9490 yuan/ton (up 1%), the 05 contract at 9170 yuan/ton (up 1.01%), and the 09 contract at 9424 yuan/ton (up 0.66%). The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4459 ringgit/ton (up 1.29%). The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9470 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 42 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have also increased, with the 01 contract at 8576 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), the 05 contract at 8118 yuan/ton (up 1.89%), and the 09 contract at 8592 yuan/ton (up 2.24%). The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 53.07 cents/pound (up 0.11%). The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8640 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6 yuan/ton [13]. 3.4 Oilseed Futures Prices - Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Prices: Futures prices of bean and rapeseed meal have generally increased. For example, the bean meal 01 contract is at 3163 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), and the rapeseed meal 01 contract is at 2688 yuan/ton (up 4.92%). The price of CBOT yellow soybeans remains unchanged at 1032.25, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1852 (down 0.12%) [16]. 3.5 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Bean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for different contracts of bean and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 294 yuan with a daily increase of 4 yuan, and RM01 - 05 is 100 yuan with a daily increase of 52 yuan [17].