Group 1: Sugar Core View - The fundamentals of sugar are mixed. In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume in the first half of July increased by 14.77% year-on-year, and the sugar production ratio rose to a high of 53.68, indicating significant supply pressure. However, low yields and sugar content in the sugarcane regions have led some institutions to lower their production forecasts for Brazil. In the domestic market, the concentrated arrival of imported sugar and the loosening of refined sugar prices have put pressure on the spot market. Nevertheless, the seasonal recovery of sugar consumption and improved procurement by traders have provided support. In the medium to long term, the expected bumper harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's new season remains unchanged, and the global loose supply pattern will continue to limit the upside potential [3]. Price and Spread Information - On August 13, 2025, SR01 closed at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.52%; SR03 closed at 5628 with a daily increase of 0.86% and a weekly increase of 0.52%; SR05 closed at 5606 with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.68%; SR07 closed at 5600 with a daily increase of 0.68% and a weekly increase of 0.7%; SR09 closed at 5722 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 0.69%; SR11 closed at 5665 with a daily increase of 0.75% and a weekly increase of 0.35%. SB closed at 16.95 with a daily increase of 2.48% and a weekly increase of 5.67%; W closed at 486.8 with a daily increase of 2.27% and a weekly increase of 5.23% [4]. - The sugar basis shows different changes. For example, on August 12, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 352, with a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly decrease of 10; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 207, with a daily decrease of 45 and a weekly decrease of 20 [11]. - The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar have increased. On August 13, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar was 4476, with a daily increase of 55 and a weekly increase of 43; the out - of - quota price was 5686, with a daily increase of 72 and a weekly increase of 56. The in - quota price of Thai sugar was 4564, with a daily increase of 55 and a weekly increase of 56; the out - of - quota price was 5801, with a daily increase of 72 and a weekly increase of 73 [14]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton provides strong support for cotton prices. However, the downstream sales have not yet recovered, so the short - term driving force for cotton prices is insufficient, and the price may remain volatile. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the downstream's willingness to stock up is expected to improve marginally, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking situation and the adjustment of the USDA supply - demand forecast report this week [16]. Price and Spread Information - On August 13, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 14130, up 150 or 1.07%; Cotton 05 closed at 14090, up 180 or 1.29%; Cotton 09 closed at 13830, up 95 or 0.69%. Yarn 01 closed at 20165, up 185 or 0.93%; Yarn 05 closed at 20345, up 275 or 1.37%; Yarn 09 closed at 20115, up 120 or 0.6% [17]. - The cotton basis was 1197, down 284; Cotton 01 - 05 was 70, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 was 175, up 25; Cotton 09 - 01 was - 245, down 45; the flower - yarn spread was 5985, down 30; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1775, down 1; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 582, down 15 [18]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Based on last year's bumper harvest, the output of grey dates in the new season has decreased year - on - year and may be lower than normal, but the extent of the reduction is difficult to determine, leading to significant market divergence. As the festival peak season approaches, downstream buyers will start to stock up gradually, and combined with the fermentation of the production - reduction sentiment, the short - term price trend of red dates may be strong. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the unclear production, it is not advisable to chase the high price [21]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared of inventory. For the new - season apples, the paper - bag Gala apples have started to be listed, and the prices are good [26]. Price Information - On August 13, 2025, AP01 closed at 7986 with a daily increase of 0%, and a weekly increase of 1.68%; AP03 closed at 7904 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 1.4%; AP04 closed at 7952 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly increase of 1.49%; AP05 closed at 7981 with a daily decrease of 0.21% and a weekly increase of 0.96%; AP10 closed at 8158 with a daily decrease of 0.24% and a weekly increase of 3.07%; AP11 closed at 7894 with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 2.31%; AP12 closed at 7926 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 1.89% [27]. - The spot prices of different apple varieties remained stable on that day. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8, with a daily and weekly increase of 0% [27].
软商品日报-20250813
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-13 10:02