黑色产业链日报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro environment for steel is positive, with supply contraction expectations, stable cost support, and the steel futures market may show a volatile and upward - biased pattern. The long - term trend depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - Iron ore prices are bounded, with short - term stable fundamentals and long - term focus on hot - rolled coil inventory pressure. The current oscillation needs macro changes to break [20]. - For coal and coke, although there are import substitution effects, considering policy expectations and support for finished product prices, the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic [29]. - The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. In the short - term, there are still expectations of supply contraction, and in the long - term, demand support may weaken [45]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, with high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and price cuts by alkali plants [55]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [80]. Summary by Directory Steel - Supply: Coal mine over - production governance and the "276 - working - day" policy support costs. There are expectations of supply contraction due to restrictions during the Tangshan parade [3]. - Demand: Steel export orders have improved slightly, but the price inversion still exists. The market depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4][8][13]. Iron Ore - Market Trend: Iron ore prices are in a following state, with limited fundamental contradictions. The anti - spread is strengthening, and the price range is bounded [20]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and some spot prices changed [21]. - Fundamental Data: Daily hot - metal production is stable at around 2.4 million tons, and port inventories are maintained. There are small changes in shipping and other data [24]. Coal and Coke - Supply: There are supply - side disturbances such as coal mine over - production inspections in Shanxi, but the import substitution effect is significant [29]. - Demand: Due to the support of finished product prices, steel mill profits are resilient, and the medium - to - long - term demand for coal and coke is not pessimistic [29]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and costs of coal and coke futures and spot prices changed compared to the previous day [33][34][35]. Ferroalloys - Market Trend: The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. There are still expectations of supply contraction in the short - term, and long - term demand support may weaken [45]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese changed compared to the previous day [46][48]. Soda Ash - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is high, demand is weak, inventory is at a record high, and the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand [55]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads also changed [56]. Glass - Market Situation: The market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory, weak sales, and pressure on spot prices [80]. - Price Data: On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads and basis changed [81]. - Sales Data: The sales rate in different regions shows certain fluctuations [82].