大越期货天胶早报-20250814

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. The spot price is resistant to decline, and the domestic anti - involution situation exists. Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, and tire production is at a record high in the same period, while tire industry exports are falling [4][6][23][29] - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [4][14][17] - Price: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 13th, and the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has US dollar quotes [8][11] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot price, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,800, and the basis is - 1,000, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on August 13th [4][35]