建信期货油脂日报-20250814

Report Information - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the policy of increasing customs duty deposit on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8% and imposing 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oil cake from Canada since March 20, 2025, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [6] - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible reduction of soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand, the long - term outlook is positive [6] - Palm oil is boosted by the increase in exports and continues to strengthen [6] - The three major domestic oils have little room for significant short - term decline, with a bullish view, and it is recommended to hold far - month basis [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10, 2025 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons from July 1 - 10 [7] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on imported rapeseed from Canada. It was initially determined that there was dumping, and from August 14, 2025, importers should provide corresponding margin according to the determined margin ratio [7] 2. Data Overview - Various price and basis data are presented, including the basis price of Dongguan third - grade and first - grade rapeseed oil, the basis price of soybean oil in the East China market, and the basis price of 24 - degree palm oil in the East and South China markets [6] - Multiple charts show the spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [9][17][19]