建信期货多晶硅日报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to fluctuate at a high level. The closing price of PS2509 was 51,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The trading volume was 395,645 lots, and the open interest was 132,463 lots, with a net decrease of 3,592 lots [4]. - Recently, commodities as a whole are in a correction phase after a sharp rise, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon itself has not intensified. Since the end of June, the fundamentals have not been the main driving factor but have restricted the price increase. On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to about 52GW. In fact, the recent price increase has stimulated the production increase from silicon materials to cells, and the overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. The increase in downstream active inventory replenishment has not intensified the supply - demand contradiction. Currently, the average price of spot N - grade polysilicon is stable at 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the terminal. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by the policy side and generally maintain a wide - range fluctuating operation [4]. 2. Market News - On August 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,150 lots, a net increase of 210 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%; the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW [5]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].