格林期货早盘提示-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to be bullish in the medium to long - term, and new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered [2]. - The double - meal market is likely to continue its strong upward trend, and a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the unexpectedly bullish USDA August report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the vegetable oil sector rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean oil Y2601 closed at 8,576 yuan/ton, up 1.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 26,820 lots in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On August 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [1][3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report was overall bullish, with the U.S. soybean planting area unexpectedly reduced. For instance, the U.S. soybean planting area was 80.9 million acres, compared with 83.4 million acres in July's expectation [1][3]. - The U.S. will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for another 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [1][3]. - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily determined that imported rapeseed from Canada was dumped, and if an anti - dumping ruling is made later, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed will increase significantly [1][3]. - Malaysia's July supply - demand report for palm oil was bullish, with production and increase lower than Bloomberg and Reuters' forecasts, and export growth higher than their forecasts [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA report and the China - Canada anti - dumping ruling led to a strong rebound in U.S. soybeans, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, policies supported commodities, and the suspension of the 24% tariff improved the macro - environment. The vegetable oil sector of the new main contract 2601 strengthened collectively [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered. For example, the resistance level of Y2601 is 9,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is 7,800 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the bullish USDA report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal's near - month contract hit the daily limit, and the far - month contract almost hit the limit, while soybean meal rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,163 yuan/ton, up 2.33% day - on - day, with an increase of 1.79 million lots in open interest [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Similar to the vegetable oil market, it includes the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, the bullish USDA August supply - demand report, etc. In addition, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume increased significantly, and the Brazilian soybean export volume in August 2025 is estimated to be 8.15 million tons [3][4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA August supply - demand report significantly reduced the U.S. soybean planting area, and the ICE rapeseed price tumbled due to the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Domestically, the market expected the import cost of Canadian rapeseed to rise, and the double - meal is likely to continue its strong upward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy. For example, the resistance level of M2601 is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2,980 yuan/ton [4].