大越期货油脂早报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which impacts the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,656, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,350 - 8,750 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,525, with a basis of 35, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,150, with a basis of 86, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - Bearish Factors: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Current Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. Supply and Demand Indicators - Supply Indicators: Include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic edible oil inventory [24]. - Demand Indicator: Soybean oil apparent consumption [14].