Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to fall below the previous low in the short term, but it should be treated with a bearish view considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strong commodity market, but the increasing imports will put pressure on the price. The terminal market demand is average, and the procurement is mainly on a need - to - use basis, with weak inventory - stocking willingness. It is expected that Zheng sugar will remain bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of "White Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "White Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of white sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - Spot Market: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 1.24%, and (out - of - quota) increased by 1.28% [2] - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in the whole country increased by 9.70%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar imports increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18% [2] Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Driven by the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report, the corn futures rebounded. However, the corn's fundamental situation changed little, with continuous auctions of imported corn and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas, which will gradually ease the supply. The market sentiment is weak, the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly, and the spot price is weak but the decline has slowed down. The demand of deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the consumption has not been significantly boosted. Wheat has a price advantage, squeezing the demand for corn. In the short term, the futures may rebound, but the overall sentiment is still weak, and the upside is limited. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and the supply pressure may remain, with the futures valuation likely to decline [4] Summary by Directory - Corn Futures: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11.94%. The south - north trade profit decreased by 26.32%, and the import profit increased by 0.61%. The number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased by 25.81%, the trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - Corn Starch: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%, and the starch - corn spread decreased by 3.38%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 10.75%, the open interest decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton industry has short - term rigid demand support but also has relatively pessimistic long - term expectations. The inventory of downstream finished products is not high, and the pressure is not large, but the peak season is not as good as previous years. The market lacks confidence in the future improvement. The short - term domestic cotton price may move in a range, and attention should be paid to macro - level trends [7] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread of cotton decreased by 48.57%. The main contract's open interest increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the number of effective forecasts decreased by 0.35% [7] - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the CC Index: 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The 3128B - 01 contract decreased by 15.32%, and the 3128B - 05 contract decreased by 6.83%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% decreased by 16.00% [7] - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 57.9% year - on - year, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 52.5% [7] Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of meals continues to rise, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and USDA's August report lowered the US soybean planting area and ending stocks, causing a sharp rise in US soybeans. Brazil's premium has been strong recently, supporting the domestic import cost. However, the improved expectation of US soybean imports may suppress the price increase. The supply of domestic rapeseed meal is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. The previous long positions in the 01 contract should be held [9] Summary by Directory - Soybean Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%; the futures price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis increased by 51.66%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipment's crushing profit decreased by 125.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - Rapeseed Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton. The crushing profit of Canadian 11 - month shipment remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - Soybeans: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] - Spreads: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7.55%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 61.54%, the spot oil - meal ratio decreased by 2.99%, the main contract's oil - meal ratio decreased by 1.12%, the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 13.76%, and the 2509 spread decreased by 10.21% [9] Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and the downstream procurement is smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supports the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. The monthly output of large - scale farms is expected to continue to recover in August, and the large pigs previously held by small farmers also need to be sold. The future pig price is still not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, with strong support at the bottom. Blind short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted when the futures have given good hedging profits [11] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The main contract's open interest increased by 8.78%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [11] - Spot Market: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 13800 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15340 yuan/ton; in Hunan, it was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [11] - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - striped pig price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit increased by 2.92%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 14.87%, and the monthly number of fertile sows increased by 0.02% [11][14] Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit, and there is a possibility of breaking through 10,000 yuan in the domestic palm oil futures. For soybean oil, the US Department of Agriculture's report shows that the supply data of soybean oil in the 2025/26 season has been increased. However, the reduction of US soybean production and ending stocks has boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. In the domestic market, the spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly. Traders expect the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and school demand to increase [15] Summary by Directory - Soybean Oil: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.98% [15] - Palm Oil: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%; the futures price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86%. The import cost of the September contract in Guangzhou Port increased by 0.89%, and the import profit increased by 8.28%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15] - Rapeseed Oil: The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%; the futures price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15] - Spreads: The 09 - 01 spread of the three oils increased by 33.33%, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 94.12%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil increased by 162.50%. The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 4.81%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 30.28% [15] Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low. Traders and food factories may replenish stocks at low prices, increasing the demand and supporting the price. However, the high inventory level, sufficient supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the price increase. Overall, the egg futures trend is still bearish, and the disturbance of low - level funds should be guarded against [18] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - Industry Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/chick; the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20%, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% [17]
《农产品》日报-20250814
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:25