建信期货生猪日报-20250814

Group 1: General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report type: Pig Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,156 lots to 180,560 lots [8] - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait-and-see state. The terminal demand is weak due to the hot weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,000 heads, an increase of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 3,500 heads from a week ago [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughtering is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9] Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current enthusiasm for slaughtering is acceptable. At the same time, the demand is in the off-season, and the supply and demand remain relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9] - Futures: Currently, the near-month 2509 contract of futures mainly follows the spot and oscillates weakly. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may oscillate strongly. The domestic anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium and long-term performance of pig prices. Pay attention to the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity [9] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - Self-breeding and self-raising profit per head: As of August 7th, the profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 119 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10 yuan/head [14] - Profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening: As of August 7th, the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -54 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 28 yuan/head [14] - Average sales price of 15kg piglets: In the week of August 7th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - Inventory of reproductive sows: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.52% and a year-on-year increase of 6.71% [14] - Planned slaughter volume: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July [14] - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 7th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [14]