Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel dropping to the lowest discount level in more than four months due to expected short - term inventory increases. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased in the week of August 6, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is sloping down. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, suggesting a bearish view. - Overnight crude oil was weak, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The fuel oil is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range. FU2509 will operate between 2700 - 2740, and LU2510 between 3420 - 3460 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by inventory increase expectations. The high - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively stable. The basis is positive, the inventory increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions are short. The fuel oil is expected to trade in a low - level range [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Potential intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market Drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased. The basis of FU increased from 141 to 206 yuan/ton, and the basis of LU increased from 85 to 133 yuan/ton [5]. - Spot Market: The prices of most fuel oil products in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-1.83%), and the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 4.06 dollars/ton (1.03%) [6]. 4. Spread Data The report mentions the high - low sulfur futures spread, but no specific analysis is provided [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250814
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:37