大越期货尿素早报-20250814

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The urea market is in a state of obvious oversupply in China, with high daily production and operating rates, and weak domestic demand. Although the international price is strong and export profits are increasing, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures market is expected to be volatile today [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Urea Overview - Fundamentals: After the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, the urea market returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and inventories are accumulating again. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is declining, and agricultural demand is also expected to fall. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, but the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in capacity, production, and consumption. The capacity growth rate has fluctuated, reaching a high of 15.5% in 2020. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate also fluctuated, with a peak of 17.9% in 2020. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Quotes - Spot: The price of the spot delivery product and Shandong and Henan spot prices are all 1810, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2748 [6]. - Futures: The 01 contract price is 1747 (-9), the UR05 contract price is 1788 (-8), and the UR09 contract price is 1726 (-1). The basis is 63 (+9) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6].