大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - Price: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Supply - demand Balance: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - Price: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Supply - demand Balance: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Expectation: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - Negative Factors: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].