大越期货沥青期货早报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week, and the refinery cut production to reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side indicates that the current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3480 - 3526 in the short term [7][8][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high price of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%, and the refinery cut production to reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand - side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss is reduced, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - Basis: On August 13, the Shandong spot price is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - Expected: The refinery's recent production cut reduces supply pressure. The demand recovery is stimulated by the peak season, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3480 - 3526 [9]. - Futures Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, change, and other information of different asphalt contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), including price, previous value, increase/decrease, and percentage change. It also shows data on inventory, production, output, and profit, etc [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It provides the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It presents the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - Supply - side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the weekly shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - Production Volume: It shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: It shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the import spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77]. - Demand - side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [84][85]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales trends of domestic excavators, and the sales trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Purpose: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: It presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104].