大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - Basis Changes: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - Lithium Ore Supply: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - Lithium Battery Demand: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - Ternary Material Demand: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].