Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - Demand: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - Basis: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - Main Position: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - Expectation: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - Yesterday's Market Overview: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - Spread Analysis: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive): Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - PVC Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - PVC Demand Trend: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - PVC Inventory: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].
大越期货PVC期货早报-20250814
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:30