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大越期货菜粕早报-20250814
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:30

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a strong and volatile short - term pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. It is predicted to oscillate between 2600 and 2660 in the RM2601 contract, and the market should pay attention to subsequent developments [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No content is provided for this part. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is yet to be determined, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposit; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [11]. - Bearish Factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [23][24]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year [8]. - Price: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2680, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [8]. - Import Situation: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [25]. - Oil Mill Situation: The rapeseed inventory in oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills has increased slightly [27][29]. - Aquatic Product Market: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [37]. 3.5 Position Data The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8].