建信期货铁矿石日评-20250814

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Quotes 8月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况 - RB2510: Previous closing price 3258 yuan/ton, opening price 3260 yuan/ton, highest price 3274 yuan/ton, lowest price 3221 yuan/ton, closing price 3222 yuan/ton, decline of 0.92%, trading volume 1,236,428 lots, open interest 1,652,593 lots, open interest change +47,205 lots, capital inflow 0.66 billion yuan [5] - HC2510: Previous closing price 3484 yuan/ton, opening price 3483 yuan/ton, highest price 3498 yuan/ton, lowest price 3448 yuan/ton, closing price 3451 yuan/ton, decline of 0.66%, trading volume 468,704 lots, open interest 1,353,836 lots, open interest change -27,724 lots, capital outflow 0.99 billion yuan [5] - SS2510: Previous closing price 13200 yuan/ton, opening price 13200 yuan/ton, highest price 13240 yuan/ton, lowest price 13115 yuan/ton, closing price 13130 yuan/ton, decline of 0.64%, trading volume 160,324 lots, open interest 144,226 lots, capital outflow 0.02 billion yuan [5] - I2601: Previous closing price 801 yuan/ton, opening price 801 yuan/ton, highest price 803.5 yuan/ton, lowest price 795 yuan/ton, closing price 795 yuan/ton, unchanged, trading volume 197,238 lots, open interest 452,419 lots, open interest change +8,620 lots, capital inflow 0.63 billion yuan [5] 8月13日黑色系期货持仓情况 - RB2510: Top 20 long positions 975,911 lots, top 20 short positions 1,030,165 lots, long position change +24,268 lots, short position change +41,372 lots, long - short difference -17,104 lots, deviation -1.71% [8] - HC2510: Top 20 long positions 966,759 lots, top 20 short positions 977,598 lots, long position change -20,634 lots, short position change -20,918 lots, long - short difference +284 lots, deviation 0.03% [8] - SS2510: Top 20 long positions 94,934 lots, top 20 short positions 106,383 lots, long position change +1,080 lots, short position change +993 lots, long - short difference +87 lots, deviation 0.09% [8] - J2601: Top 20 long positions 22,452 lots, top 20 short positions 28,968 lots, long position change +944 lots, short position change +956 lots, long - short difference -12 lots, deviation -0.05% [8] - JM2601: Top 20 long positions 345,358 lots, top 20 short positions 439,981 lots, long position change -36,050 lots, short position change -4,758 lots, long - short difference -31,292 lots, deviation -7.97% [8] - I2601: Top 20 long positions 291,866 lots, top 20 short positions 281,990 lots, long position change +5,252 lots, short position change +4,434 lots, long - short difference +818 lots, deviation 0.29% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis 行情回顾 - On August 13, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures oscillated, opened higher and then oscillated, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 795.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 现货市场动态与技术面走势 - Spot market: On August 13, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0 - 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning back; the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross [9] 后市展望 - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restriction in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 section steel enterprises using semi - finished steel billets. Some coking plants in Shandong have a production restriction plan from August 16 - 25 (30% restriction), August 26 - September 3 (50% restriction), and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 41,000 tons [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly last week, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may oscillate at a moderately low level. Demand - The downstream steel demand still shows a seasonal decline, inventory is gradually accumulating, and the molten iron output has declined for three consecutive weeks but is still above 240,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen again. With sufficient profits, steel enterprises maintain strong production. In the short term, the demand for iron ore remains strong, supporting the ore price. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan needs to be observed. If the production cut is not large, the raw material price will not be under great pressure and may even strengthen slightly with the rise of steel prices [11] - Overall: At present, the price trend of the black sector is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and the speculation sentiment of anti - involution related varieties still exists, but the impact on iron ore is small, and the price will gradually return to fundamentals. Considering that the high production of steel mills supports the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, it is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level consolidation trend in the short term. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan on the fundamentals needs to be observed [11] Group 4: Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea issued Announcement No. 2025 - 171, proposing to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled stainless steel plates originating from China. The tax rate for relevant enterprises and other Chinese producers/exported is 21.62%. The case involves products under South Korean tax numbers 7219.21.1010, etc., excluding some specific products such as hot - rolled coils [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the sample steel mill's tax - free molten iron cost, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20][25][29][30][35][37][43]