Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term, influenced by the rebound of US soybeans and the rise of rapeseed meal. However, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices will limit the upward movement of the futures price. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3140 and 3200 [8]. - The domestic soybeans are affected by the rise of US soybeans and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the upward movement of the price. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No information provided in the content. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the arrival of imported soybeans, as well as the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the domestic soybean meal is in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recovery of soybean meal demand and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations may lead the soybean meal to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued increase in domestic soybean meal inventory, the potential weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war cause the short - term moderately bullish oscillation of soybean meal, waiting for the clear production of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic soybean meal at oil mills; uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July; the end of Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From August 4th to 13th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 and 3097, and the trading volume varied from 5.25 to 31.15 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2600 and 2680, and the trading volume was relatively small, ranging from 0 to 0.3 million tons [15]. - Soybean and Meal Price Data: From August 5th to 13th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend. The spot price of soybeans remained stable at 4300, and the spot price of soybean meal increased from 2910 to 3000 [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From August 1st to 13th, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 10950 to 8925. The soybean (bean - one) warehouse receipt decreased from 13402 to 12865, and the soybean (bean - two) warehouse receipt decreased from 2600 to 2900 [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changing trends of harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, reflecting the development situation of the soybean industry in different regions [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: From February to August 2025, the data of the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show the changes in harvest area, yield, production, and other indicators [41]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in August has declined from the high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the soybean meal inventory has remained basically flat [45]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in short - term stocking demand [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from the high level, and the soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures profit has also fluctuated slightly [50]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month [52]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen, and the piglet price has remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit has recently declined [58].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250814
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:40