农产品早报-20250814

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report author: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable, while prices in Weifang decreased by 6 yuan. The basis decreased by 19 yuan, trade profit decreased by 5 yuan, and import profit increased by 41 yuan [3]. - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 6 yuan, and processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3]. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the market atmosphere has eased due to reserve auctions, and new - season corn is about to be listed, leading to a slight increase in market circulation and a slight decline in prices. In the long term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders, and the supply increase after the new - season corn is listed may put downward pressure on prices [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and the inventory remains high, so the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [4]. Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - The spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 29 yuan, and the import profit increased by 50 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 324 [7]. Core Views - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, but due to lower - than - expected yields, there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and the large - scale arrival of imported sugar will put pressure on the market [7]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - The price of 3128 cotton increased by 100 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 82. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan, and the import profit increased by 58 yuan. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 55 yuan [8]. Core Views - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [8]. Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - Egg prices in Hubei increased by 0.03 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05 yuan, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.10 yuan, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan [9]. Core Views - Egg prices rebounded in mid - July due to supply and demand factors, then corrected. From mid - August, demand is expected to pick up, but high inventory may limit the rebound height. Attention should be paid to disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations [9]. Group 6: Apples Data Summary - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreasing by 20,000 tons. The 1 - month basis decreased by 17 yuan, the 5 - month basis decreased by 20 yuan [10][11]. Core Views - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national output is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price is stable, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [11]. Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively. The basis increased by 235 yuan [11]. Core Views - The spot price rebounded over the weekend due to reduced supply in some areas, but demand has not improved significantly. There is still medium - term supply pressure, but there are also policy expectations in the long term. The futures market is driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [11].