燃料油早报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near-month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly strengthened to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread slightly rebounded to $3.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated around $8. [3][4] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased on a month - on - month basis. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, and the arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly on a month - on - month basis, and net exports increased significantly. The divergence between the East and the West in high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected that there will be a two - way regression in the future. [4] - This week, LU's weakening was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 slightly weakened, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the 380 EW spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term short positions in LU should be exited. [4] Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 407.16 | 401.51 | 401.32 | 396.94 | 391.10 | -5.84 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.69 | 455.43 | 454.60 | 452.82 | 450.16 | -2.66 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.04 | -2.75 | -2.85 | -3.23 | -3.55 | -0.32 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 644.25 | 648.45 | 644.43 | 638.66 | 627.98 | -10.68 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | -187.56 | -193.02 | -189.83 | -185.84 | -177.82 | 8.02 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.56 | 22.94 | 22.30 | 22.10 | 21.18 | -0.92 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSF M1 | 49.53 | 53.92 | 53.28 | 55.88 | 59.06 | 3.18 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 409.81 | 407.04 | 397.66 | 401.22 | 392.60 | -8.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 419.56 | 416.29 | 407.16 | 411.88 | 404.10 | -7.78 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 488.48 | 484.34 | 481.62 | 484.51 | 476.91 | -7.60 | | Singapore GO M1 | 84.71 | 84.89 | 83.94 | 85.26 | 82.98 | -2.28 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -1.83 | -1.67 | -2.87 | -3.02 | -3.31 | -0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | -138.37 | -143.85 | -139.54 | -146.41 | -137.14 | 9.27 | [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 402.93 | 403.56 | 391.73 | 396.64 | 388.41 | -8.23 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.15 | 487.97 | 481.67 | 483.55 | 475.21 | -8.34 | | 380 Basis | -5.35 | -4.75 | -4.80 | -3.95 | -4.05 | -0.10 | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 9.9 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 0.6 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2838 | 2797 | 2781 | 2800 | 2772 | -28 | | FU 05 | 2799 | 2757 | 2747 | 2770 | 2751 | -19 | | FU 09 | 2826 | 2766 | 2760 | 2770 | 2730 | -40 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 40 | 34 | 30 | 21 | -9 | | FU 05 - 09 | -27 | -9 | -13 | 0 | 21 | 21 | | FU 09 - 01 | -12 | -31 | -21 | -30 | -42 | -12 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Name | 2025/08/07 | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3463 | 3418 | 3418 | 3457 | 3430 | -27 | | LU 05 | 3416 | 3382 | 3392 | 3417 | 3394 | -23 | | LU 09 | 3510 | 3432 | 3450 | 3489 | 3442 | -47 | | LU 01 - 05 | 47 | 36 | 26 | 40 | 36 | -4 | | LU 05 - 09 | -94 | -50 | -58 | -72 | -48 | 24 | | LU 09 - 01 | 47 | 14 | 32 | 32 | 12 | -20 | [3]