原油成品油早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen to $65 per barrel for Brent this week, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have resurfaced due to the situation in Ukraine and Iran. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased this week, with a slight draw in US commercial crude oil and gasoline/diesel, a slight build in Singapore's light and medium - quality products, and a draw in European ARA region gasoline and a slight build in diesel. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery margins have rebounded on a weekly basis. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Sanctions on Iran and Russia pose a risk of supply decline, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread levels. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is expected to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [6]. 3. Summary by Section Daily News - Trump stated in a call with European leaders that the core goal of his meeting with Putin this week is to achieve a cease - fire in Ukraine, not to discuss territorial division. All leaders agree that Ukraine must participate in the negotiations throughout, and the decision on territorial concessions belongs solely to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to cease fire, Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that sanctions can be escalated or relaxed and may have a schedule, and Europe needs to join these sanctions [3]. - Russia announced production cuts of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December. France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they will activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution is not found by the end of August. In July, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the idle refining capacity reached a peak for the year [3][4]. Regional Fundamentals - EIA reports show that in the week ending August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day (a 2.89% increase compared to the same period last year), the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, and inventories also showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a weekly basis, while that of local refineries declined [5]. Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil has fallen, and the monthly spreads have slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased. Fundamentally, there are mixed inventory trends globally. Refinery margins have rebounded. The near - term fundamentals are volatile, and the absolute price is expected to be volatile and fall in the fourth quarter [6].