大越期货甲醇早报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with the market likely to fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with expected continuous inventory accumulation, and is expected to be in a state of fluctuating with both rises and falls. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to operate in the range of 2470 - 2520 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases with the resumption of some plants, but low inventory and external procurement demand from CTO enterprises maintain a tight balance. The port is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation due to concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants. Methanol futures are supported but have limited upward momentum, and prices are expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Positive factors: Some domestic plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid plants are put into production, and northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Negative factors: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, traditional demand is in the off - season, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 69, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 13.20 tons to 49.83 tons [5]. - Market price changes: There are price changes in various regions. For example, the price in Hebei has increased by 1.10% week - on - week, while the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42% [8][9]. - Production profit: Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 300 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 120 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 485 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8]. - External market price: The CFR price in China is 274 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 334 US dollars/ton [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55]. - Foreign plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries are operating normally, with some in maintenance [56]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants are operating stably, some are in maintenance, and some have uncertain restart times [57].