广发期货《有色》日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 80,000. The market is waiting for US economic data in August. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support, but the weak economic outlook in the US puts pressure on the upside of copper prices [1]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply - side surplus and a weak demand - side, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, low inventory levels provide some support. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Nickel - The nickel market shows little change in fundamentals. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [7]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, the strategy should be to short on rallies; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. The current tin ore supply remains tight [8]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract operating in the range of 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and nickel - iron dynamics [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the price range of 3000 - 3400 this week. For aluminum, in the short - term, prices are expected to remain under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, with prices fluctuating around 85,000. Operators are advised to be cautious and can try to go long lightly on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,475 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.01% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. Zinc - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.27%. The import loss was - 1893 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased by 11.09% week - on - week [4]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 123,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The import loss of futures decreased by 31.99% [7]. - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90% [7]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price fell to 270,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 47.91% [8]. - Fundamental Data: In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 6.98% [8]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,250 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.16% [9]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [9]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The import loss decreased by 64 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In July, alumina production increased by 5.40% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.11% [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the weekly social inventory increased by 5.83% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.85%. The 2509 - 2511 monthly spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In July, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% month - on - month, and the total inventory decreased by 2.01% [14].