大越期货原油早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the global oil market is moving towards a record - high surplus next year due to slower demand growth and increased supply. IEA also lowers the expected incremental demand for crude oil this year and next. OPEC slightly reduces this year's demand increment, and EIA crude oil inventories accumulate more than expected. These factors lead to a significant decline in oil prices during the US trading session. However, the upcoming US - Russia negotiation and the possibility of secondary sanctions if the meeting goes poorly add geopolitical concerns and support to oil prices, causing large price fluctuations. Short - term, the price is expected to range between 480 - 490, and long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The US Treasury Secretary says that if the Trump - Putin meeting goes badly, sanctions or secondary tariffs may increase. The IEA reports that this year's global crude oil supply surplus will exceed expectations, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. It expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year, higher than previous forecasts [3]. - Basis: On August 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.66 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $66.66 per barrel, with a basis of 9.23 yuan per barrel, and the spot was at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.941 million barrels), EIA inventories for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.275 million barrels), and Cushing area inventories increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 13, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 4.767 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the price was below the average [3]. - Main Position: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both increased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term, the price will range between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Geopolitical News: Trump threatens Putin with "serious consequences" if he hinders the Ukraine peace process but also mentions the possibility of a US - Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting. Macron says Trump agrees that Ukraine must participate in territorial discussions, and Zelensky says Trump supports post - war security guarantees. The US Treasury Secretary warns of increased sanctions if the Trump - Putin meeting is unsuccessful [5]. - Supply - Demand News: The IEA reports that the global crude oil supply surplus will exceed expectations this year, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. Supply growth is mainly driven by non - OPEC+ producers. The market is starting to show oversupply, and global oil inventories reached a 46 - month high in June [5]. - Interest - Rate News: After data shows mild inflation in the US in July, the market believes there is a 99.9% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The Treasury Secretary thinks the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points due to weak employment data [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period may be extended again [6]. - Negative Factors: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts decrease while trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent decreased by $0.49 (- 0.74%), WTI decreased by $0.52 (- 0.82%), SC decreased by 3.80 (- 0.77%), and Oman increased by $0.48 (0.71%) [7]. - Spot Quotes: The spot prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd decreased by $0.65 (- 0.96%), WTI decreased by $0.52 (- 0.82%), Oman decreased by $1.13 (- 1.64%), etc. [9]. - Inventory Trends: API and EIA inventory data from May to August show fluctuations, with significant increases in inventories in some weeks [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: As of July 29, the net long positions increased by 2,692, and as of August 5, they decreased by 14,194 [18]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions: As of July 29, the net long positions increased by 33,959, and as of August 5, they decreased by 20,375 [20].