Group 1: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to break below the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view is maintained considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strengthening of the commodity market, but the increase in imports and weak terminal demand are expected to keep it bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of "Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - Spot Market: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4476 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; (out - quota) was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [2] - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 (unit not specified), up 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume was 811.38 (unit not specified), up 23.07%. The cumulative production in Guangxi was 646.50 (unit not specified), up 4.59%. The monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 9.70%; in Guangxi, it was 71.85%, up 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar import volume increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, up 18% year - on - year [2] Group 2: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn futures rebounded due to the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report. However, the supply will gradually ease due to continuous import corn auctions and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. The market sentiment is weak, and the spot price is stable but weak with a slowing decline. In the short - term, the upward movement of the futures is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [4] Summary by Directory - Corn Futures: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 75 yuan/ton, up 11.94%. The profit of north - south trade decreased by 26.32%. The arrival of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 25.81%. The trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - Corn Starch: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 10.75%. The position decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton price may trade in a range in the short - term. The downstream has short - term rigid demand support, but the market lacks confidence in the future improvement, and the cotton price is under pressure [7] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread was 260 yuan/ton, up 48.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the effective forecast decreased by 0.35% [7] - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13697 yuan/ton, up 2.20% [7] - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 57.9%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year of the same month decreased by 52.5% [7] Group 4: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory is continuously rising, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the USDA report affected the market. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [9] Summary by Directory - Soybean Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%. The price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 73, up 51.66%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - Rapeseed Meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis of RM2601 was - 28. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - Soybeans: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract of "Bean 1" was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The price of the main contract of "Bean 2" was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] Group 5: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs stabilized, and the downstream procurement was smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supported the price. The supply and demand are both weak. The group farms' slaughter is expected to continue to recover in August, and the future price is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, with strong support at the bottom, but the impact of hedging funds needs attention [11] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The position of the main contract increased by 8.78% [11] - Spot Market: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50; in Shandong was 13800 yuan/ton, up 200; in Sichuan was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50; in Liaoning was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50; in Guangdong was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100; in Hunan was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50; in Hebei was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 [11] - Industry Indicators: The daily sample slaughter volume increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price increased by 0.03%, and the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14% [11] Group 6: Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit and even break through to 4580 - 4600 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures may also follow suit and may冲击 10000 yuan. Soybean oil: The US Department of Agriculture's report increased the supply data of soybean oil in 2025/26. Although the ending inventory increased, the decrease in US soybean production and ending inventory boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly [15] Summary by Directory - Soybean Oil: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%. The price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26% [15] - Palm Oil: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86% [15] - Rapeseed Oil: The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%. The price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76% [15] Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low, and the downstream may increase procurement, which will support the price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs may suppress the price increase. The egg futures are expected to remain bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [17][18] Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - Industry Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%, the egg - feed ratio was 2.45, down 7.20%, and the breeding profit was - 21.44 yuan/feather, down 111.23% [17]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250814
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-14 07:20