瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Copper main contract oscillated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. The smelters are currently actively producing, but the production growth rate may gradually slow down due to the supply of copper concentrates. The downstream consumption demand may slow down due to the off - season and trade tariffs, and the total inventory remains at a medium - low level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 78,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 430 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,762 dollars/ton, a decrease of 41 dollars. The spread between the main contract's adjacent months was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 152,341 lots, a decrease of 6,536 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai Copper was 4,902 lots, an increase of 5,608 lots. The LME copper inventory was 155,875 tons, an increase of 875 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 81,933 tons, an increase of 9,390 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants were 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 24,434 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 485 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 79.20 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.94 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, an increase of 4.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,720 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 320 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 70,420 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 320 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, an increase of 480 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418.2 million tons, an increase of 43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, an increase of 118.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, an increase of 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, an increase of 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 9.52%, an increase of 0.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.65%, a decrease of 0.07%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 9.85%, an increase of 0.0073%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.26, an increase of 0.0109 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting has the possibility of action; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points. The total US national debt exceeded 37 trillion dollars for the first time. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving a total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2]