瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of a slight increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with large fluctuations in lithium prices and a gradually improving industry outlook [2] - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call option holding an advantage in positions and a slight increase in implied volatility [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of a green bar [2] - The recommended operation is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 148,691 lots, up 10,849 lots [2] - The position of the main contract is 389,177 lots, down 3,498 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 9,340 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 21,679 lots/ton, up 850 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,750 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 884 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,595 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons [2] - The monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 31,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 53,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,000 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 123,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 129,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, down 51 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 0%, down 52 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1,308,000 units, up 600,000 units [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.71%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 50.71%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] Option Situation - The total call option position is 148,988 contracts, up 6,545 contracts; the total put option position is 111,528 contracts, up 20,387 contracts [2] - The put - call ratio of total positions is 74.86%, up 10.8728 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.49%, up 0.0092 percentage points [2] Industry News - Chinese researchers have developed soft - pack cells with an energy density of over 600 Wh/kg and module batteries with an energy density of 480 Wh/kg, improving the energy density and endurance of traditional lithium - ion batteries by 2 - 3 times [2] - Jiangte Motor holds or controls over 100 million tons of lithium ore resources in Yichun [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have drafted a notice on strengthening the recall, production consistency supervision, and standardized publicity of intelligent and connected new energy vehicles [2]