瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]