瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,287 yuan/ton. Supply: PE output increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 661,100 tons. Demand: The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory: Producer inventory rose 19.09% to 515,400 tons, social inventory fell 1.22% to 568,700 tons, and total inventory pressure is not significant. Domestic PE's next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start in mid - August. Due to the leap June, domestic greenhouse film demand is delayed, extending the downstream off - season. Food and daily chemical packaging film orders are accumulating sporadically, mainly for rigid demand. Cost: OPEC+ production increase impact continues, IEA predicts intensified oil supply - demand imbalance, and the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders makes international oil prices fluctuate weakly. For L2509, pay attention to the support around 7,200 yuan/ton; for L2601, focus on the support around 7,300 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton. The main contract is about to switch to L2601 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,343 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume was 187,511 lots, and the open interest was 303,896 lots, an increase of 91,334 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 56. The buy orders of the top 20 futures positions were 322,688 lots, a decrease of 3,077 lots; the sell orders were 339,408 lots, and the net buy orders were - 16,720 lots, a decrease of 1,438 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,313.04 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7,398.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.24 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis was 26.87, with a change of 0.04 [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.31 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia was 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 84.08% [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 49.3%, that of pipes was 29%, and that of agricultural film was 13.07% [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 11.89%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 14.8%, an increase of 0.19% [2] 3.8 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period. From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 515,400 tons, an increase of 19.09% from the previous period; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period [2]