工业硅日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are generally stable, while futures prices continue to oscillate within a range without clear directional guidance, with a balanced drive from both long and short funds. The fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, maintaining a loose balance. The anti - involution policy sets a bottom tone, but without actual policy implementation in the industrial silicon industry, the spot prices are only stable and not rising, and the market lacks a major driving force. In the short term, it is expected to operate in a convergent triangular and volume - shrinking oscillation between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and interval operation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices mainly oscillated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8675 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.14%. The trading volume was 512076 lots, and the open interest was 279035 lots, with a net decrease of 5465 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Prices - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The operation of plants in the Southwest and Xinjiang production areas has boosted the weekly output to 83,500 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of 370,000 tons - Demand: The production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons. The demand from organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and exports is expected to remain stable, equivalent to a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply - demand balance is loose (excluding 97 - grade silicon and recycled silicon), and there is no inventory - reduction drive in the industry [4] 3.4 Market News - On August 14th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,693 lots, a net decrease of 8 lots compared to the previous trading day - According to customs data on August 7th, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]