建信期货油脂日报-20250815

General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 9396 | 9394 | 9454 | 9280 | 9294 | -102 | -1.09% | 212511 | 188228 | -38522 | | P2601 | 9466 | 9480 | 9538 | 9350 | 9368 | -98 | -1.04% | 703708 | 444903 | 5591 | | Y2509 | 8582 | 8580 | 8634 | 8526 | 8540 | -47 | -0.49% | 109913 | 237228 | -23815 | | Y2601 | 8560 | 8596 | 8616 | 8502 | 8520 | -40 | -0.47% | 530688 | 705833 | -3966 | | 60910 | 10099 | 10060 | 10070 | 9824 | 9852 | -247 | -2.45% | 112790 | 2638 | -17929 | | Ol601 | 10104 | 10050 | 10064 | 9815 | 9840 | -264 | -2.61% | 500035 | 301480 | 18815 | [7] Market Analysis - Market sentiment cooled, and the high - level of oil and fat declined, especially the rapeseed oil 01 filled the gap of the gap - up opening. - Affected by policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired. Although there are sporadic news of rapeseed oil purchases from Dubai or Australian seeds, it is believed that it cannot fully make up for the supply gap from Canada. - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies of the United States and Brazil and the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, combined with the recovery of domestic demand, it is optimistic in the long - term. - The palm oil producing areas are still in the seasonal growth period, and the market expects the inventory to continue to increase in August. There may be a short - term correction, but the long - term view is bullish. [8] Industry News - According to data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons exported from July 1 - 10. - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada. The investigating authority preliminarily determined that there was dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada, the domestic rapeseed industry in China was materially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and material damage. Temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of a deposit will be implemented starting from August 14, 2025. [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]