建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250815

Report Information - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Contracts: For the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3290, the opening price was 3288, the highest price was 3297, the lowest price was 3150, and the closing price was 3191, with a decline of 99 and a drop rate of 3.01%. The trading volume was 242,135, the open interest was 122,655, and the open interest decreased by 30,207. For the 2510 contract, the closing price was 3189, with a decline of 11 and a drop rate of 0.34%. The trading volume was 325,909, the open interest was 310,634, and the open interest increased by 25,322. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 3313, with an increase of 5 and an increase rate of 0.15%. The trading volume was 54,070, the open interest was 117,784, and the open interest increased by 5,435 [7]. - Spot Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, also with no change from the previous day [7]. Analysis of the Market Situation - Spot Market: Egg prices dropped sharply last week. The peak - season price increase in the spot market started late this year, around July 10th. By late July, market pressure emerged, and the release of cold - stored eggs impacted the market. The current round of decline in the peak season was about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, indicating significant supply pressure. Although spot prices stabilized this week, there was no upward trend nationwide, especially in the Hebei pink egg area where prices were still slightly under pressure [8]. - Futures Market: The near - month 09 contract dropped to nearly 3300 points last week, hitting a record low since listing. This week, it continued to squeeze out the premium and has fallen below 3200 points. The current market sentiment is extremely low. In the short term, the large - scale trend of near - month contracts may still be bearish, and there are risks in taking long - position opportunities in bands. If the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter [8]. 2. Industry News - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The inventory has been increasing for 7 consecutive months [9]. - Chick Hatchling Volume: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hens in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and the same period in 2024 (41.68 million). This was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume this year [9][10]. - Hen Culling Volume: In the three weeks up to August 7th, the national hen culling volumes were 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline rate higher than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average age of culled hens was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10].