铝日报-20250815

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of the US dollar easing expectation trading and the weak financial data in July in China, the economic outlook remains sluggish, and Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure and weakens. Maintain the high - short strategy for Shanghai Aluminum due to the off - season and inventory pressure [7]. - Alumina has a surplus in fundamentals, so maintain the idea of selling on rebounds, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by sentiment changes. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both weak, and it continues to operate in a range, with the AD - AL negative spread remaining at a low level for the time being [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2509 closed at 20,715, down 0.38%, and the 08 - 09 backwardation turned to parity. Cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 510. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream automotive industry is in the off - season, maintaining a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [7]. - After the news stimulus decreases, alumina has a high - level correction. With the unchanged surplus fundamentals, maintain the idea of selling on rebounds. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources decided to adjust the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic clay, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alum [8]. - On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The mining rights of a 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area previously held by GAC have been granted to NMC for 25 years [10]. - The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s bauxite mine in Shanzhou District have been changed, with a valid period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, and a designed production scale of 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland, Australia. The construction is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].