大越期货尿素早报-20250815

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - Leverage and Risks: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - Spot Market: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - Futures Market: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].