Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged due to the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and high tariff uncertainty. Short - term, the bond market, especially long - term varieties, is under pressure as tariff uncertainties are settled, risk - aversion sentiment cools, and commodities and the stock market strengthen. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Also, pay attention to the marginal changes in July economic data [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: On August 14, weak financial data and the stock market's performance had limited impact on the bond market. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield up 1.4bp to 1.734%. The central bank conducted net repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan. Inter - bank funds were loose, short - term fund rates changed slightly, and medium - long - term funds were stable [8][9][10] - Conclusion and Suggestions: Long - term, the bullish foundation remains. Short - term, long - term bond varieties are under pressure. Short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may be more resilient. Consider a strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Pay attention to July economic data after the central bank's 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [11][12] 2. Industry News - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright repurchase operation on August 15. From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Two discount policies were detailed, and post - policy evaluations will be carried out. 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades supported by ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment. There are international news about US - Russia cooperation proposals, potential US sanctions on Russia, and a call for the Fed to cut interest rates [13][14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures contracts [6][15][16] - Money Market: Involves data on SHIBOR, inter - bank repurchase rates, etc. [28][32] - Derivatives Market: Contains data on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves [34]
建信期货国债日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:21