Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to expected short - term inventory increases, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel reaching the lowest discount level in over four months. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. [3] - The market is waiting for the meeting between the US and Russian leaders. Oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, but the terminal rigid demand boost is insufficient. The bearish sentiment in the fuel market is obvious, and fuel is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. The FU2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2740, and the LU2510 contract in the range of 3430 - 3480. [3] - The行情 is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens due to inventory increase expectations; high - sulfur marine fuel demand is relatively stable, neutral. [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $388.47/ton with a basis of 176 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is $480.5/ton with a basis of 88 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures, bullish. [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels, bearish. [3][8] - Disk: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, bearish. [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions increase; low - sulfur main positions are long, changing from short to long. [3] - Expectations: The fuel market is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2509: 2700 - 2740 range; LU2510: 3430 - 3480 range. [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to rise: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified. [4] - Likely to fall: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. [4] - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report provides information on the basis of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, with the spot premium over futures, indicating a bullish signal in terms of basis. [3] 3.4 Spread Data No specific spread data analysis is provided other than a graphical display of the high - low sulfur futures spread. [12] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 is provided, showing that the inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. [3][8]
大越期货燃料油早报-20250815
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-15 02:34