沪锌期货早报-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures decline in a volatile manner, closing with a negative candlestick and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with short positions decreasing slightly more. Overall, it was a decline on shrinking volume. As the price dropped, long - position holders exited to wait and see, while short - position holders were more active in exiting. Therefore, the market may experience a short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and was operating in the strong zone. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces rising, and the dominance of short forces expanding. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor. [2] 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,530, and the basis was +50, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 14, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 77,450 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 905 tons to 17,097 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. [2] 3.4 Market Trends - On August 14, the zinc futures of various delivery months on the futures exchange generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2509 had a previous settlement price of 22,670, an opening price of 22,600, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,430, a closing price of 22,480, and a settlement reference price of 22,540, with a decline of 190. [3] 3.5 Spot Market - On August 14, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets mostly declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in a certain area was 17,160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,530 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. [4] 3.6 Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - From August 4 to August 14, 2025, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased. The total inventory on August 4 was 87,200 tons, and it increased to 110,100 tons on August 14. [6] 3.7 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On August 14, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 17,097 tons, an increase of 905 tons compared to the previous day. [8] 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory - On August 14, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons. [9] 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Prices - On August 14, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities mostly declined by 40 yuan/ton. [11] 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On August 14, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters mostly declined by 50 yuan/ton. [15] 3.11 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons. [18] 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 14, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some areas, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, with some increases or no changes. [20] 3.13 Trading and Position Ranking - On August 14, the total trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 121,741, a decrease of 1,171 compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 53,485, a decrease of 2,753, and the total short - position volume was 53,278, a decrease of 3,231. [21]