大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, due to sustained low processing margins, recent changes in PTA plants have increased. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize. Attention should be paid to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely within the month, and the increase lacks sustainability. The arrival volume of foreign ships will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is moderately positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support for ethylene glycol will be strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures followed the cost side down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with polyester factories as the main buyers. The spot basis was differentiated. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 14. The spot price is 4646, and the 09 - contract basis is 6, with the futures price at a discount. PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was active. The night - session ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly. In the morning, affected by the Shenghong Refining and Chemical plant, the market briefly rebounded, and buying interest was active. Then the market declined and adjusted, and polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened synchronously, and by the end of the session, the spot negotiation price was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. In terms of US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading price of ship cargoes was around 522 - 526 US dollars/ton, with transactions around 522 - 524 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchases. The spot price is 4465, and the 09 - contract basis is 98, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, PTA consumption, and ending inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.5. Price - The report provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, and inventory from 2020 to 2025. It also shows the price spreads of PTA (TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1), PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spreads (EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), MEG basis, spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [14][17][21][22][24][27][30][34][37]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - The report analyzes the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025, including factory - level inventory and port inventory [40][41][43]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - The report provides data on PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].