大越期货纯碱早报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory movement. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, showing a bearish situation [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - Likely Positive Factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,400 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 120 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.23%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 1.59%, and the main basis decreased by 2.44% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production Profit: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production volume is at a historical high [18][20]. - Industry Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production volume growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].